Tuesday, December 18, 2018 5:00:00 AM -06:00
During meteorological autumn (September–November), the average temperature was 53.8°F, 0.2°F above average, ranking near the middle value in the 124-year period of record. Figure 1 (below) shows the mean temperature percentiles for Autumn 2018 and what is clearly obvious from that figure are the following:
The autumn precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 9.61”, 2.73” above average. This was the second wettest autumn on record, behind the 9.72” that fell in 1985. (see Figure 2 below).
For the year-to-date, the contiguous U.S. temperature was 55.2°F, 1.4°F above the 20th century average and was the 16th warmest January–November on record. This was the coolest January–November since 2014 (see Figure 3 below).
For the year-to-date, the national precipitation total was 31.31”, 3.72” above average. This marked the fifth wettest January–November on record and wettest since 1998 (see Figure 4 below).
Here is what to expect regarding precipitation and temperature in the coming week.
Figures 5 and 6 below show the expected 6-10-day temperature and precipitation outlooks. The colored shading on the map indicates the degree of confidence the forecaster has in the category indicated, where "B" and blue colors indicate "below-normal" and "A" and orange-red colors indicate "above normal". The darker the shading, the greater is the level of confidence. The numbers labeling the contours separating different shades gives the probability that the indicated category (A, B, or N) will occur.
Generally, the probability of below average temperatures (as seen in Figure 5) is generally low over Alaska only. In general, the probability is low to moderate that with the exception of Florida, the entire United States will experience above average temperatures, especially over the Southern Plains states, Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. Florida will experience normal temperature for this time of the year.
The precipitation outlook for the next 6-10 days (Figure 6) shows moderate probability of below average precipitation over far northeastern Alaska, Florida and over much of the East Coast from Florida northwards into Virginia and. A low to moderate chance for above average rainfall exists for much of the central and western areas of the country west of the Mississippi. The probability is about 50% that above average rainfall will occur over Oregon and most of Idaho and also parts of eastern Oklahoma. Most of southern California, New England and the Ohio Valley should expect to receive average rainfall.
Weekly hazards output by the NWS’s Climate prediction center for the next 3-7 days is shown in Figure 7 below.
Figure 7 shows a relatively quiet period ahead in the next 3 to 7 days. Heavy precipitation is expected over the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest between the 17th and 20th December. High winds and significant waves are also expected along the coastal areas of Oregon and Washington between the 17th and 18th December. Much below average temperatures should be expected over southwestern Alaska between the 18th and 20th. Areas of flooding are still possible over parts of the Carolinas, northern Florida/southern Georgia and parts of eastern Missouri/southwestern Illinois.
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